Showing posts with label insurance stock prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label insurance stock prediction. Show all posts

Aspen Insurance stock outlook 2013

Best Insurance stock - Aspen Insurance stock outlook 2013 : Aspen Insurance has been witnessing rising earnings estimates on the back of strong fourth-quarter 2012 results. Moreover, this property and casualty insurer delivered positive earnings surprises in all four quarters of 2012 with an average beat of 54.3%.

Additionally, Aspen Insurance and Goldman, Sachs & Co. ( GS - Analyst Report ) entered into an Accelerated Share Repurchase agreement whereby Aspen will pay $150 million to Goldman in exchange of its shares. Further, from Jan 1, 2013 through Feb 26, 2013, Aspen bought back $47 million shares. Aspen is left with $335 million under its $500 million share repurchase authorization.

Following a through review of businesses, management decided to lower its wind and earthquake exposure within the U.S. property insurance account. This would free up more than $200 million of capital that could be deployed to maximize shareholder value.

Aspen Insurance expects to generate operating return on equity of 10% in 2014. It delivered 8.5% in return on equity in 2012.

Aspen Insurance reported its fourth-quarter results on Feb 7. Non-GAAP loss per share came in at 15 cents, better than the Zack Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.21 per share.

Gross written premiums improved 25.6% year over year to $576.2 million in the fourth quarter. A surge of 40.2% in gross written premiums at the Insurance segment fueled the improvement.

Combined ratio improved 1710 basis points year over year to 107.1% in the fourth quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 increased 6.8% to $2.97 per share as 3 of 6 estimates were revised higher over the last 60 days. Also for 2014, 3 of 6 estimates moved up, pushing the Zacks Consensus Estimate higher by 7.6% to $3.13 over the same time frame.

Insurance stock prices analysis today

Best Insurance Stock  - Insurance stock prices analysis today : Metlife Inc stock prices analysis, Genworth Financial Inc ,  Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) , ING Groep N.V. (ADR) (NYSE:ING) : Metlife Inc (NYSE:MET) stock is at $37.23, down-2.06 percent from its previous close of $38.20. Its today’s volume is 9.73 million shares in comparison to its usual trading volume of 8.67 million shares. The stock opened the session at $37.71 and touched its highest price point at $37.80.

The company is on track to expand the portfolio of Americas head William Wheeler with a $2 billion agreement to takeover AFP Provida SA (PROVIDA) from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), highlighting the potential he may be the next chief executive officer.

Metlife Inc’s lowest price point for the session stood at $37.22, and its 52 week price range stood at $27.60 - $39.55. The company has total of 1.09billion outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $40.62billion. Its beta value stands at 1.99 times and earning per share was $2.05.

Previous 5 days graph demonstrated a negative move of -1.12%. MET’s quarterly performance remained green with the percentage of +7.29, while its year to date performance showed that the stock advanced overall 13.02%.

Genworth Financial Inc (NYSE:GNW) stock is at $9.15, down-1.61 percent from its previous close of $9.30. The stock opened the session at $9.23 and touched its highest price point at $9.25. Genworth Financial stock’s lowest price point for the session stood at $9.08.

Stocks graphical chart shows a bullish trend during its last one month’s trading session. It remained positive with 50.99% during previous three months trade.

Its today’s volume is 8.14 million shares in comparison to its usual trading volume of 10.66 million shares. Its beta value stands at 3.15 points. Currently stocks EPS is $0.61 while its price to earning ratio is 15.11.

Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) opened the session at $29.15 and remained in $28.73 and $29.25 price range during the session. The stock is 2.10 percent down at $28.88. Volume closed the day at 2.61 million shares, its average volume being 2.58 million shares.

The company has total of 275.02 million outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $7.94billion. Its beta value stands at 2.66 times and earning per share was $1.44.

LNC was a loser in the 5 days activity and slipped about -0.59%. The one month performance of stock was positive as it scored more than 2.74%.

ING Groep N.V. (ADR) (NYSE:ING) traded in the range of $9.41 and $9.64 in its previous trading session. The stock recorded the volume of 2.92 million shares so far, in comparison its average daily trading volume of 1.96 million shares. The company has total of 3.80 million outstanding shares and its total market capitalization is $35.81billion.

Company’s year to date performance remained declining as it lost almost -0.74%. If we look at last 6 months of trade that is in bullish zone with an increase of 42.08%

The stock opened at $9.64 and its closing price for the day was $9.42, down-5.52 percent from its previous close of $9.97. The beta of the INGstands at 2.77. 52 week range of the stock is $5.51 -$10.47. (source http://otcstockpicks.net/)

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Aflac Dividend Stock forecast

Aflac Dividend Stock forecast
Aflac Dividend Stock forecast : Aflac Incorporated provides supplemental health and life insurance in Japan (80% of earnings) and the U.S. Products are marketed at work sites and help fill gaps in primary coverage.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

AFL is trading at a discount to 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $61.44. AFL earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

AFL earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. AFL earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 30 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

AFL earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $992. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as AFL has. The stock's current yield of 2.6% exceeds the 2.54% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: AFL is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: American Independence Corp. (AMIC) with a 0.0% yield, Unum Group (UNM) with a 2.3% yield and CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) with a 0.8% yield.

Conclusion: AFL earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks AFL as a 5-Star Very Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $51.47 before AFL's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 30 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.6%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.3%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 7.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. AFL has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

Operating in the two largest insurance markets in the world (U.S. and Japan), AFL has built a tremendous low-cost distribution system. Focusing on supplemental insurance products, AFL consistently generate excess returns for shareholders. Consistent earnings has allowed the company to increase its dividend and repurchase shares.

Despite a strong business model, the AFL's balance sheet remains stressed due to questions over some of its investments, specifically European bank hybrid bonds and European sovereign debt. The company has taken steps to de-risk its investment portfolio. This move will likely slow earnings growth over the next few years, but should lead to higher long-term value.

AFL is currently trading at a discount versus its historical valuation. The company is trading below my calculated fair value price of $61.44. However, a recent runup in its share price has lowered the stocks yield, so for now I will wait on a more attractive entry point before adding to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information. Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in AFL (1.5% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).source : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1154141-aflac-incorporated-dividend-stock-analysis?source=google_news